The Iran-Israel conflict has entered a critical phase, with the potential for a costly and complex escalation that could have far-reaching consequences. The war, which began with the Israeli-US attack on Iran and its proxies, has already demonstrated the limitations of military power and the dangers of an ill-defined strategy. The initial success of the airstrikes, which targeted Iran's supreme leader and other key leaders, has not prevented the clerical regime from remaining intact and has failed to secure Iran's highly enriched uranium. Instead, the conflict has entered a new phase of "horizontal escalation" as Iran seeks to widen the conflict geographically and economically.
The concept of an escalation trap is a key concern, where the attacker becomes drawn into a conflict that is more complex, protracted, and costly than initially anticipated. This is particularly evident in the disparity between the tactical and strategic levels of the US-Israeli campaign. While the airstrikes have been tactically successful, the broader strategic goals of the war remain unachieved, and the cost to Washington and the global economy is rising.
Robert Pape, a US historian, highlights the three stages of the escalation trap. The initial attack was almost 100% successful tactically, but the lack of strategic success has led to a doubling down on escalation. This has pushed Tehran towards a wider global economic and political impact, as Iran targets the Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. By creating wedges between the US and the Gulf states, Iran is forcing publics in the region to question the motives of the war.
The conflict is also being driven by a series of debates, including the risk of state-on-state conflict with China, the desire to avoid multiple simultaneous threats and conflicts, and the split between those who envision a narrow set of achievable objectives and Trump's desire for "coercive control" over Iran. The trajectory of the conflict is uncertain, with the potential for further escalation, including troops on the ground, attacks on infrastructure, and involvement with Kurdish or other ethnic groups.
The risks of escalation are also highlighted by Robert D. Kaplan, who warns of the "slippery slope of incrementalism" that could lead to a civil war in Iran and the US's involvement through special forces and advisers. The conflict is a complex and dangerous situation, with the potential for a costly and prolonged war that could have significant global implications. The outcome will depend on the strategic considerations and psychological factors of the key players, including Trump's desire for a "coercive control" over Iran and the Iranian regime's determination to maintain its deterrence in the region.
